Chargers-Jets: NFL betting odds, picks, tips

Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season will wrap up Monday evening with the New York Jets internet hosting the Los Angeles Chargers.

What can we anticipate from a betting standpoint?

Betting analysts Eric Moody, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are right here to offer their ideas.

Notice: Odds by ESPN BET.

Chargers (-3.5, 39.5) at Jets. How are you betting this sport?

Schatz: I favor the overall to the unfold right here. Sure, Jets video games are usually low-scoring, however the Chargers have had a complete over 40.5 in six of their seven video games this season. A part of the problem there’s that the Los Angeles protection has merely not been good this 12 months, ranked twenty seventh in DVOA proper now. The Jets will have the ability to transfer the ball a bit of bit, and so will the Chargers, and so I am going with over 40.5.

Moody: I’m backing the Jets (+3.5) to cowl the unfold for this sport. New York is enjoying at house, and the Chargers are touring from the West Coast to the East Coast. This season, the Jets’ protection has been robust, rating ninth in run cease win price and permitting the fifth fewest opponent passing yards per sport. New York shall be able to compete on the nationwide stage. That is going to be a detailed sport, for my part. The Chargers are solely 12-8-1 in opposition to the unfold when they’re highway favorites since shifting to Los Angeles.

The Jets have quietly gained three in a row and have not misplaced since Oct. 1, and even that was a three-point loss to the Chiefs. Are you shopping for New York as a group that has turned it round?

Schatz: Outline “flip it round,” I assume. To the group we thought they have been going to be with Aaron Rodgers this 12 months? Nope. However higher than they have been in September? Sure. The Jets ranked thirty first in offensive DVOA in September in contrast with twenty fourth in October. Their defensive DVOA has gone from sixteenth in September to fourth in October. In the event that they hold enjoying the best way they’ve performed since that shut Kansas Metropolis loss, the Jets will be wild-card contenders. So sure, I assume I am shopping for.

Walder: No. There’s discuss of Zach Wilson enjoying higher, however I simply do not see it. He ranked thirtieth in QBR in 2021, would have ranked twenty eighth if he certified in 2022 and ranks twenty eighth in 2023. The protection is legitimately glorious, however the Jets are lucky to be 4-3 with Wilson and I anticipate he’ll maintain the group again within the second half of the season.

Breece Corridor‘s dashing yards prop is ready for 57.5 whereas Austin Ekeler‘s is at 46.5. Which operating again do you are feeling is extra prone to hit the OVER?

Moody: Corridor OVER 57.5 dashing yards. He is prepared for an enormous workload popping out of the bye week for a Jets group that does not seem to need Dalvin Prepare dinner concerned. Corridor had 18 touches final week in opposition to the Giants. In opposition to a Chargers protection that has allowed opponents the second most whole yards per sport, he is in good place to succeed. Los Angeles’ defensive entrance ranks twenty first in run cease win price. Regardless of averaging solely 11.1 dashing makes an attempt per sport, Corridor ranks among the many prime 5 operating backs in dashing makes an attempt of 20 yards or extra.

What’s your favourite prop guess Monday?

Schatz: The Chargers permit 58 receiving yards per sport to operating backs, near the worst determine within the NFL. Breece Corridor has 54 and 76 receiving yards in his previous two video games. It appears arrange for Corridor to go OVER 19.5 receiving yards in Monday evening’s sport.

Moody: Garrett Wilson OVER 67.5 receiving yards. Wilson has surpassed 67.5 receiving yards in two consecutive video games. Additionally, he has amassed 10 or extra targets in every of them. No different protection permits extra passing yards per sport to opponents than the Chargers. Wilson and Jets quarterback Zach Wilson ought to have the ability to capitalize on this favorable matchup.

Walder: Quinnen Williams UNDER 0.5 sacks (-190). Williams is an excellent participant however has all kinds of circumstances working in opposition to him right here. He performs defensive sort out and his group is the underdog and, most necessary, Justin Herbert has only a 5.3% sack price this season — seventh-lowest amongst quarterbacks. My mannequin places the truthful worth at -341.

Is there the rest you are enjoying Monday?

Moody: Justin Herbert OVER 0.5 Interceptions. Herbert has had a go intercepted in three of his previous 4 video games. He is enjoying, however the finger damage nonetheless appears to be a difficulty. There’s a robust likelihood that Herbert will throw an interception on the highway in opposition to an excellent Jets secondary the place the margin for error will not be as vast because it was final week in opposition to the Bears.

Walder: Jordan Whitehead OVER 4.5 tackles + assists (-140). Though he is a security, Whitehead nonetheless information an analogous sort out share on run and go performs and a better sort out price on run performs. Meaning if the Chargers get forward and begin operating the ball greater than common, that truly would work in Whitehead’s favor when it comes to the over. My mannequin tasks Whitehead for six.3 tackles + assists.